In the grand saga of Canada’s housing landscape, a recent report by CIBC’s deputy chief economist, Benjamin Tal, has ignited fresh discourse on the housing supply conundrum. Titled ‘The housing crisis is a planning crisis,’ Tal’s research unveils a sobering revelation: the gap in housing supply projections may be far wider than previously envisaged, possibly surpassing the already staggering figure of 3.5 million homes initially anticipated by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) for completion by 2030.
In Tal’s compelling narrative, the crux of the matter lies in the meticulous orchestration of population forecasts and urban planning strategies. He adeptly highlights a glaring disparity between existing growth targets and the palpable reality of population expansion. According to Tal, this incongruity, amounting to a shortfall of nearly three years’ worth of housing supply, stems largely from the chronic underestimation of non-permanent residents, a demographic that comprises over 90% of the forecasting gap.
Tal’s discourse goes beyond mere critique; it offers a roadmap for rectification. He underscores the urgent need for a paradigm shift in forecasting methodologies and planning frameworks, advocating for a comprehensive approach that encompasses both permanent and temporary visa approvals. For Tal, the linchpin of this transformative agenda lies in the establishment of transparent, timely, and meticulously vetted forecasting mechanisms, akin to those in place for permanent residents.
The implications of Tal’s findings reverberate across various echelons of governance. Municipalities, tasked with the onerous responsibility of accommodating burgeoning populations, find themselves at a crossroads, grappling with the ramifications of past planning oversights. As Tal aptly notes, the planning process, akin to an intricate ballet, unfolds over a decade-long timeline, from land identification to housing unit allocation. Therefore, the accuracy of population forecasts assumes paramount importance in this intricate choreography.
In light of these revelations, Tal’s call to action resonates with a sense of urgency. While recent policy interventions, such as Immigration Minister Marc Miller’s announcement of a national cap on international student intake, represent commendable strides, Tal asserts that bolder initiatives are imperative. The path forward, he suggests, demands a holistic approach, one that transcends bureaucratic silos and fosters synergy between federal, provincial, and municipal entities.
In essence, Tal’s report serves as a clarion call for introspection and recalibration within Canada’s urban planning apparatus. It beckons policymakers to navigate the complex interplay between demographic shifts and housing dynamics with foresight and acumen, lest the specter of a housing crisis looms larger on the horizon. As the nation stands at the precipice of demographic transformation, Tal’s insights serve as a guiding beacon, illuminating a path towards a more resilient and equitable housing future.
