Why is the 2025–26 renewal wave such a big deal?
Roughly 60% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages come up for renewal in 2025 and 2026 — the largest concentrated renewal wave in a generation. Most of these were locked during the pandemic at 1.5% to 2.5%, and they’re now maturing into a market where qualifying fixed rates sit in the 4% to 5% range. On a $500,000 balance, moving from 2% to 4.5% can lift a payment by $600–$700 a month — what lenders call “payment shock.” You can’t make the rate environment disappear, but you can blunt the impact: shop 120 days early, benchmark against 50+ lenders instead of accepting one letter, and model amortization and product changes before you sign. The clients who get hurt are the ones who do nothing and let the renewal auto-process. Engage early and the shock becomes a managed adjustment, not an ambush. Model your new payment first.
